Beaufort County at risk of census undercount

Published 5:14 am Wednesday, March 17, 2010

By By BETTY MITCHELL GRAY
Staff writer

Beaufort County is one of several eastern North Carolina counties at risk of losing millions of dollars in future federal funding because a significant portion of their residents likely will not mail back completed census forms, according to a report released earlier this week by Democracy North Carolina. 
Beaufort, Hyde, Pitt, Tyrrell and Washington counties are among almost half the counties in the state who face an increased risk of losing federal funds because they have histories of low mail-back rates of census forms or have a significant share of residents who typically have low response rates, such as families living in poverty or in substandard housing, according to the report. 
“More than $400 billion in federal funds are allocated each year based on the population count, or about $1,500 per person,” said Bob Hall, director of Democracy North Carolina, a nonpartisan organization that uses research, organizing, and advocacy to increase voter participation. “For every 1,000 residents not counted, a county could lose $1.5 million a year for school programs, health care, job training, housing, senior centers and more.” 
Data collected by the census also helps determine the number of seats North Carolina will have in the U.S. House of Representatives in the next 10 years. It also forms the basis for districts represented in the North Carolina General Assembly.
The report comes as census forms begin arriving in mailboxes across Beaufort County and eastern North Carolina counties.
A census form asks 10 questions that are intended to count the number of people living in the household and identify each person’s race and ethnic origin. If a census form isn’t returned, the household will likely receive a visit from a census taker who will ask the questions.
The Democracy North Carolina report ranks counties on the basis of their response rates to the 2000 census and 1990 census and each county’s share of those people identified as “hard-to-count.”
The U.S. Census Bureau has identified 12 types of people who generally make up so-called “hard-to-count” groups, including those people who lack a high school education, live in poverty, don’t speak English, live in a multi-family dwelling, rent their homes, receive public assistance or are unemployed.
Beaufort County’s mail response rate to the 1990 census was 63 percent, with a 60-percent response to the 2000 census. The final return rate for the 2000 census was 74.9 percent. Beaufort County ranks 31st among North Carolina’s 100 counties in its share of hard-to-count population, with the No. 1 ranking being the highest share, according to the report.
Hyde County’s mail response rate to the 1990 census was 61 percent and to the 2000 census, 51 percent. The final return rate for the 2000 census was 76.8 percent. It ranks 19th among the state’s counties in its share of hard-to-count population, according to the report.
Pitt County’s mail response to rate to the 1990 census was 67 percent and to the 2000 census, 62 percent. The final return rate for the 2000 census was 71.1 percent. It ranks 15th among the state’s counties in its share of hard-to-count population, according to the report.
Tyrrell County’s mail response rate to the 1990 census was 62 percent and to the 2000 census, 56 percent. The final return rate for the 2000 census was 75 percent. It ranks ninth among the state’s counties in its share of hard-to-count population, according to the report.
Washington County’s mail response rate to the 1990 census was 68 percent and to the 2000 census, 61 percent. Its final return rate for the 2000 census was 75 percent. It ranks 22nd among the state’s counties in its share of hard-to-count population, according to the report.
The final nationwide response rate for the 2000 census was 67 percent. The final statewide response rate for the 2000 census was 64 percent. It was 63 percent for North Carolina in 1990.
Robeson County ranks as the county with the highest risk of losing money, followed by Duplin, Edgecombe, Scotland, Bladen, Vance, Halifax, Columbus, Hoke and Sampson counties, according to the report.
Camden County ranks as the county with the lowest risk of losing money, followed by Transylvania, Davie, Polk, Clay, Cabarrus, Stokes, Haywood, Henderson and Dare, according to the report.
In 2000, more than 40 percent of the housing units in these counties did not return census forms. Follow-up visits by census workers and statistical adjustments produced the final population count for North Carolina, but the Census Bureau eventually determined that it under counted the state’s population by 1.3 percent of the correct number.
If the 2010 census ends up with a similar under count for North Carolina’s roughly 9.5 million people, the state would lose more than $190 million a year, or some $2 billion in the next decade, Hall said.