It’s the first week of March, and already the National Hurricane Center is issuing a predictive decree. The words being used to describe this hurricane season? Quiet. Mild. Tame. The NHC is even citing a reduced chance of landfall on the East Coast (over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida).

The Atlantic Ocean has cooled to temperatures last seen a decade ago. La Nina, the weather impetus behind hurricane formation, looks like it’s calming down a bit. There are no strong indicators about any threats to the U.S. coastline, according to the chief meteorologist at Weather Services International.

Across eastern North Carolina a sigh of relief may be heard. But wait — you might want to hold that breath for a minute.

They’re saying that only three of next year’s predicted 12 hurricanes will have Category 3 or greater status. Only three. As we found out last year, all it really takes is one: Irene — the only hurricane to hit the United States in 2011.

And those three hurricanes with Category 3 status? Those of us present for last year’s 16-hour-long Category 1 hurricane have learned through that long, drawn-out affair that a category assigned to a storm may or may not tell you a whole lot about how that storm impacts a yard, a home, a body of water.

A prediction, no matter how scientific, can’t tell you how six months later, hundreds of people spread over Beaufort, Hyde, and Pamlico counties will still be rooming with neighbors and bunking with relatives because their homes have yet to be rebuilt from that one unlucky swoop of a storm.

As nice as it would be to cling to the idea of a quiet, mild, tame hurricane season, a prediction remains a guess, an educated one, but a guess nonetheless, even when it’s offered by the finest weather minds in the country.

If we can’t rely on a prediction, all we can do is rely on storm preparedness. And storm preparedness for the City of Washington means handling the Charlotte Street bridge matter sooner, rather than one hurricane later.